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View Full Version : Recession over????


fieroboi
12-01-2009, 05:57 PM
I can't speak as to the situation in the US, but I just heard a broadcast on the news here in Canada, saying "The recession is over"!

I'm not sure I can believe what they are saying. Where I live I wouldn't be so bold as to make a comment like that. Jobs here are hard to find and there are lots of people still out of work. "For Sale" signs are everywhere and on everything one can imagine.

I believe we are still in for some re-adjustments on the market and I feel that this time it will HURT far more than the last time. I'm curious what the rest of you think!


Lloyd
Blue's YardFX
Camrose, AB

lawncrafter56
12-01-2009, 08:11 PM
Greetings Loyd, I believe it is far from over. Heard someone say that what you will need to survive if corrections are not made is God, Guns & Gold. Ijust want to mow yards. Welcome!

Steve
12-01-2009, 08:15 PM
I think the media and the politicians tend to want things to be black and white. It's either the economy is crumbling or the recession is over. Everything seems to be an extreme and it always seems to be happening right now.

This economic situation we are in now didn't happen over night. It took many many years. To recover from this situation will take many many years as well. I don't think we have even made it through the worst yet. Not until we start seeing more jobs being created and more people back at work.

The creation of businesses and jobs is a priority now but it is going to be a slow road. People will need money to spend in order to increase the need of products and services.

SuperiorPower
12-01-2009, 08:25 PM
Here is why I do not believe we are out of the recession.

The recession did not start a year ago so it will not be over in a year. The current recession is the result of decades of bad decisions. To think that we can pull out of the recession in anything less than YEARS (at the least) is simply absurd (I really wanted to use that word! lol), ignorant, and irresponsible.

The recession may be lessening, but it is NOT over. I personally believe that the winter will show that the recession is still on a "down swing", and not on an "up-swing".

For example, Obama spent more money (created more national debt) in the first 4 months of his Presidency than ALL of the previous US Presidents did. You can not do this and expect that you will have anything less than SERIOUS and lengthy financial problems for us and everyone who does business with us. While I was writing this, I was reminded that "no one lives to themselves and no one dies to themselves". The meaning is that what we do, affects SOMEONE else. This is ALWAYS the truth. Nothing that we do in private does not also in some way affect those around us. In some way or some how. With that said, what we as a Nation have done and continue to do will affect the nations we do business with.

Obama admitted recently that if we continue spending it will only make the recession worse...... What a genius thought!

Also, I do not believe the recession is necessarily over until we see the jobs back. Perhaps not all of the jobs need to be back, but they need to be coming back at least. If I recall correctly, we are still losing jobs. Maybe not as many as before, but we are still losing jobs. Certain jobs, and a certain number of jobs will never be able to go away. So once we are down to these "core" jobs, you can't really lose them. And then you say you are not losing jobs but are still in a recession, right? I know that may be a slight exaggeration of how it really works, but that was for illustration purposes.

And just because jobless claims are down for a month or so is not sufficient cause to say "The recession is over". To determine that we are out of the recession I think we will have to see positive results for months and maybe even a year or so to be certain we are "headed in the right direction". Like I said before, we did not get in this mess overnight and we will not get out of it overnight. PERIOD. Reread the second paragraph of this post.

So in brief, no, I do not believe we are out of the recession yet. Tell the person saying so that they are ABSURD!

-Eli

swstout
12-01-2009, 09:33 PM
Here is why I do not believe we are out of the recession.

The recession did not start a year ago so it will not be over in a year. The current recession is the result of decades of bad decisions. To think that we can pull out of the recession in anything less than YEARS (at the least) is simply absurd (I really wanted to use that word! lol), ignorant, and irresponsible.

The recession may be lessening, but it is NOT over. I personally believe that the winter will show that the recession is still on a "down swing", and not on an "up-swing".

For example, Obama spent more money (created more national debt) in the first 4 months of his Presidency than ALL of the previous US Presidents did. You can not do this and expect that you will have anything less than SERIOUS and lengthy financial problems for us and everyone who does business with us. While I was writing this, I was reminded that "no one lives to themselves and no one dies to themselves". The meaning is that what we do, affects SOMEONE else. This is ALWAYS the truth. Nothing that we do in private does not also in some way affect those around us. In some way or some how. With that said, what we as a Nation have done and continue to do will affect the nations we do business with.

Obama admitted recently that if we continue spending it will only make the recession worse...... What a genius thought!

Also, I do not believe the recession is necessarily over until we see the jobs back. Perhaps not all of the jobs need to be back, but they need to be coming back at least. If I recall correctly, we are still losing jobs. Maybe not as many as before, but we are still losing jobs. Certain jobs, and a certain number of jobs will never be able to go away. So once we are down to these "core" jobs, you can't really lose them. And then you say you are not losing jobs but are still in a recession, right? I know that may be a slight exaggeration of how it really works, but that was for illustration purposes.

And just because jobless claims are down for a month or so is not sufficient cause to say "The recession is over". To determine that we are out of the recession I think we will have to see positive results for months and maybe even a year or so to be certain we are "headed in the right direction". Like I said before, we did not get in this mess overnight and we will not get out of it overnight. PERIOD. Reread the second paragraph of this post.

So in brief, no, I do not believe we are out of the recession yet. Tell the person saying so that they are ABSURD!

Eli, you are in danger of (like me) being labeled a domestic terrorist by candidate Obame. Someone needs to let him know he got the JOB! Someone needs to tell him, it's time to start doing the job and stop campaigning for world president.

-Eli

"The recession may be lessening, but it is NOT over. I personally believe that the winter will show that the recession is still on a "down swing", and not on an "up-swing". The Global Warming FARSE will insure Americans will be spending much more that "projected"!

:For example, Obama spent more money (created more national debt) in the first 4 months of his Presidency than ALL of the previous US Presidents did." You left out one very important word - Combined! Obama spent more in his first 4 montha that all other Presidends combined.

And just because jobless claims are down for a month or so is not sufficient cause to say "The recession is over". To determine that we are out of the recession I think we will have to see positive results for months and maybe even a year or so to be certain we are "headed in the right direction". By jobs, we have to have real jobs. Permanent, full-time, private sector jobs! Not jobs that enlarge Government or Union Jobs (the new branch of government)!

Steve

SuperiorPower
12-01-2009, 09:51 PM
"The recession may be lessening, but it is NOT over. I personally believe that the winter will show that the recession is still on a "down swing", and not on an "up-swing". The Global Warming FARSE will insure Americans will be spending much more that "projected"!

:For example, Obama spent more money (created more national debt) in the first 4 months of his Presidency than ALL of the previous US Presidents did." You left out one very important word - Combined! Obama spent more in his first 4 montha that all other Presidends combined.

And just because jobless claims are down for a month or so is not sufficient cause to say "The recession is over". To determine that we are out of the recession I think we will have to see positive results for months and maybe even a year or so to be certain we are "headed in the right direction". By jobs, we have to have real jobs. Permanent, full-time, private sector jobs! Not jobs that enlarge Government or Union Jobs (the new branch of government)!

Steve

Thanks for clarify those things. Especially the part about the national debt being more than all the others created combined.

I still say, forget the republicans. They have forgotten us, we will forget them. They claim they are for smaller government, they have betrayed us. Lets give someone else a shot at it. And it not the Dumb-a-craps. For me it will be the Constitution Party.

I am following the CP on twitter and received a twit (or is it tweet?! lol) from them. A link to this article was included.... see what you think: http://www.onenewsnow.com/Politics/Default.aspx?id=784098

For the heck of it, I am also following the "white house". Tonight they tweeted a number of tweets with bits of his speech. Here is the content of one of the tweets....

"we have forged a new beginning between America and the Muslim World... mutual interest in breaking a cycle of conflict"

I think he said more than he intended.... I am still waiting to see him appear on TV with a diaper on his head.....

Steve
12-02-2009, 12:38 AM
we have forged a new beginning between America and the Muslim World... mutual interest in breaking a cycle of conflict

What do you think he meant by this? I never saw any of our issues as issues with the Muslim world. This wasn't a religious based issue. At least not to me.

It was more of a 'seek out these knuckle head terrorist training camps and wipe them clear off the planet.'

If you and your buddies set up a terrorist camp like this

http://thehapps.files.wordpress.com/2007/04/alqaeda_training_camp1.jpg

And you are following a person that looks like this.

http://www.hamiltonhall.info/images/binladin.jpg

You are going to meet your end with one of these.

http://cache.gizmodo.com/assets/images/4/2008/12/droneaircraft.jpg

swstout
12-02-2009, 12:58 AM
Personally, I'd rather be waterboarding! lol

Steve

Steve
12-02-2009, 01:02 AM
LOL

http://rlv.zcache.com/id_rather_be_waterboarding_t_shirt-p235741307039461432q6hp_400.jpg

http://www.hollow-hill.com/sabina/images/waterboard-game.jpg

SuperiorPower
12-02-2009, 11:32 AM
LOL

http://rlv.zcache.com/id_rather_be_waterboarding_t_shirt-p235741307039461432q6hp_400.jpg

http://www.hollow-hill.com/sabina/images/waterboard-game.jpg

That is just WRONG!

fieroboi
12-02-2009, 11:46 AM
I think the media and the politicians tend to want things to be black and white. It's either the economy is crumbling or the recession is over. Everything seems to be an extreme and it always seems to be happening right now.

This economic situation we are in now didn't happen over night. It took many many years. To recover from this situation will take many many years as well. I don't think we have even made it through the worst yet. Not until we start seeing more jobs being created and more people back at work.

The creation of businesses and jobs is a priority now but it is going to be a slow road. People will need money to spend in order to increase the need of products and services.

I think you hit the nail on the head Steve, what we are seeing is what the media and politicians want us to see. Of course they are extreme, they want us to believe that things are better and that we can afford to open up our wallets once more and spend money.

I don't know about you, but I have to admit, I learned one thing from this economic situation and that is that I will strive to continue to do business with little (less than a $1000) to no debt. If I can't pay cash for it, then I don't need it. I've had to watch my sister struggle with keeping up with the payments on her house that she and her hubby purchased 2 - 3 years ago. It is no where near the value that she paid for it.

A friend of mine that is struggling to find full time employment and is working two part time jobs finds things so stressful as he is working along side recent imigrants who due to the situation over a year ago moved here and were guaranteed full time jobs that the companies are required to maintain (some contract agreement with the government). So in the meantime what do the people do that lost jobs in the crisis???? Don't get me wrong, I DO NOT blame the imigrants, but rather the governement for being so short sighted on what was developing. As commented earlier, this was something that has taken years to develop, we (governments) should have seen it coming.

I do believe that we will see many more people go into work for themselves, and I'm sure many will get into the business. I hope and plan to stay strong, viable and provide top quality work for my clients. I still think things will be tough, but as the old saying goes ... "When the going gets tough ... the TOUGH get going!"

Lloyd
Blue's YardFX
Camrose, AB

Steve
12-02-2009, 04:00 PM
I don't know about you, but I have to admit, I learned one thing from this economic situation and that is that I will strive to continue to do business with little (less than a $1000) to no debt.

You are not alone. Another investor by the name of Warren Buffett shares in your view of debt.

Warren Buffett (http://everythingwarrenbuffett.blogspot.com/2008/03/warren-buffett-debt.html) does not like debt and does not like to invest in companies that have too much debt, particularly long-term debt. With long-term debt, increases in interest rates can drastically affect company profits and make future cash flows less predictable.

I've had to watch my sister struggle with keeping up with the payments on her house that she and her hubby purchased 2 - 3 years ago. It is no where near the value that she paid for it.
Many, many people are having huge issues with homes and debt now. When you have a fulltime job, you tend to get lulled into this illusion that what ever they pay you, you are worth on the open market. So if this job ends, another will begin and you will get the same pay if not more.

This is a fallacy.

Signing on the dotted line for a 30 year loan is a risk. No doubt about it. For a long time people were required to put 20% down on a home so they had some skin in the game. They were showing they were making a commitment to paying the home off and also, if they got into financial trouble, they would have equity in the home so they could sell it and not be underwater.

Recently we saw it was possible to buy a home with no money down. No proof of income. And pay only the interest for the first 7 years where you could then re-finance the mortgage once again to another exotic payment plan.

Any time you take on debt, you are taking on a risk.

Debt had become so freely available it was like crack. Our society got addicted to it. Why not then take on as much debt as I possibly can get my hands on? That became the mantra and that led to huge problems.

As we come out of this, we will learn to save more and take on less debt until people no longer remember this recession and then start to take on more debt again and the cycle will repeat itself.

fieroboi
12-02-2009, 08:33 PM
Everything you say Steve is very true, I think we (society in general) started believing things would never end.


As we come out of this, we will learn to save more and take on less debt until people no longer remember this recession and then start to take on more debt again and the cycle will repeat itself.

This so reminds me of what my dad had told me about my grandfather and the recession in the 30's. My grandfather had gone out in 1929 and borrowed money to buy a new tractor and thrashing machine for the farm. Then the 30's hit and well, he had to go back to doing everything with the horses as he could not afford to buy fuel to run the tractor except during harvest. My dad said the recession had such an impact on my grandfather as he nearly lost the whole farm on the fact that he had borrowed to buy this equipment, that he never borrowed money ever again and only paid cash for things. It wasn't until the mid seventies that the farm borrowed money again.

I didn't learn my lesson in debt until I ended up divorced and could not pay things off. Once I got things fixed up, I have stayed virtually debt free ever since.


Lloyd
Blue's YardFX
Camrose, AB

SuperiorPower
12-02-2009, 09:48 PM
What do you think he meant by this? I never saw any of our issues as issues with the Muslim world. This wasn't a religious based issue. At least not to me.

It was more of a 'seek out these knuckle head terrorist training camps and wipe them clear off the planet.'

If you and your buddies set up a terrorist camp like this

http://thehapps.files.wordpress.com/2007/04/alqaeda_training_camp1.jpg

And you are following a person that looks like this.

http://www.hamiltonhall.info/images/binladin.jpg

You are going to meet your end with one of these.

http://cache.gizmodo.com/assets/images/4/2008/12/droneaircraft.jpg

Do you mean you don't see the whole terrorist thing as a religious thing? Because I believe it is, whether we want it to be or not.

Steve
12-02-2009, 10:15 PM
Do you mean you don't see the whole terrorist thing as a religious thing? Because I believe it is, whether we want it to be or not.

My take is this. Bin Laden uses religion to work people up into a frenzy. It's very easy to do this when you use religion in that way.

History will repeat this again and again and again.

WWII, Hitler rises to power and points out to his fellow countrymen that there are evil forces keeping Germany from being mighty. He looked around and picked a group that he thought he could dominate. First it was the Jews, the Gypsies, the homosexuals. They were all rounded up and killed. Then he claims Germany has the master race of people that need to defend themselves against others.

Later, the enemy became Poland, then France, then England, Then America and Russia and then it all collapsed on top of him.

Bin Laden is no different than Hitler in my eyes. He works a group of disillusioned weak minded people to think America wants to destroy Islam. He says its the Muslims vs America. It's easy to say and it's easy to scare people saying that but we have a country here that is a cross section of the world. We have every religion here, every ethnic group. People from every other nation living here.

We can't as a society go against anyone based on religion or based on nationality.

If our leaders are at odds with the leadership of another country's leaders, very rarely do the people of those two nations have issues with each other. People in general are just too busy trying to get by and dont have the time to have issues with this group or that group and I think that applies to everyone everywhere.

Most people just want to live their own life.

Disenchanted, lost people seek out leaders like Bin Laden who create conspiracies and get them aligned to fight a battle that exists only in their minds.

But that's just my take.

SuperiorPower
12-03-2009, 12:14 PM
I am afraid I have to disagree on this point.

When you go back and look, the Muslim people have been fighting other religions for as long as they (the Muslims) have been around. Why? Well it all started back in Biblical times. And it has never changed. It was a religious difference back then and it still is.

The Muslims hate us in part because of our alliance and friendship with Israel. The Muslims and the Israelis have hated each other for thousands of years. Why? Here is why....

Ishmael, who is the father of what would alter become the Muslim belief system and Isaac, the Father of the Israelites, were half brothers. So both of them claim the same ground as theirs, thus the constant fight in the Gaza area. They will never get along. The bible tells us that.

People say that the Muslim faith is not a violent belief system. I am told by credible sources that if you really read the Koran that you will find that the Koran really does teach violence against "infidels" which is simply put, anyone who does not agree with them.

So watch this video: "What does the Koran teach about terrorism" (http://www.leestrobel.com/videoserver/video.php?clip=strobelT3975). Once you have watched this video, about 2 former Muslim Jihadists, think about the whole religious question. I believe you will agree that it has always been about Jihad and religion.

So thus, I say that This has been a matter of religion, whether we want it to be or not. This is also why I take issue with Obama's statement. We can not agree with someone like this without also yoking up with them, in this case, in a spiritual manner.

fieroboi
12-08-2009, 10:36 AM
Historically, religion has always been one of the main excuses used to create wars in the past, and I'm sure will continue to be.

However, I don't think that is the reason we (the world globally) is in a recession. Society in general has over spent and over valued things in life, and it is due to the greed of society that we find ourselves in this situation.

Society can not continue to over spend and constantly buy on credit, at some point we must pay the piper. There must be some middle ground, sure not everyone will or can afford to buy a house, but when it takes two incomes and on the upper end of middle class to afford a house I think scoiety has an issue. Hhhmmm ... I think that the French Revolution started something along that way!

Lloyd
Blue's YardFX
Camrose, AB